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Category: Seasonal Forecasts

June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

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Thursday morning, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their monthly discussion on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is typically released on the second Thursday of each month. Their update lowered the chances of El Niño for fall 2017, with chances being lowered from about 45% to 35-40%. No El Niño Watch was issued, meaning the development of El Niño is not imminent. This continues the trend of the past few ENSO discussions: lowering chances of El Niño and increasing chances of ENSO-neutral…

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Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

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Yesterday, Britain-based meteorological company Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued an updated forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. They predicted that the 2017 Atlantic season would have near-normal activity overall, with 14 (+/- 4) named storms, 6 (+/- 3) hurricanes and 3 (+/- 2) major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 98 (+/- 48). This is an increase from their previous forecast on April 5, in which they predicted 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major…

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NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

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As expected, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2017 hurricane season forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins this morning. Their outlook calls for a near to above average season for both basins. NOAA largely based their forecasts on the development of a “weak or nonexistent El Niño.” For the Atlantic basin, NOAA is expecting 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Their report also called for a 45%…

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My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

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It is not often you see East Pacific hurricane season forecasts, so I decided to make my own. NOAA is likely going to release their East Pacific hurricane season forecast later today, but most other agencies do not release seasonal forecasts for the East Pacific basin. Last season, the East Pacific basin saw an above-average season with 22 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, despite a weak La Niña – which typically suppresses the East Pacific basin. The…

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