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A quiet first half of August for the Atlantic, but an uptick likely on the way very soon

A quiet first half of August for the Atlantic, but an uptick likely on the way very soon

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The first half of August has passed with no tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin, which is not terribly unusual. Unlike August of last year, which went all month without a single tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, it appears likely that the Atlantic basin will come to life within the next 2 weeks. This is right in line with climatology, as there is a sharp spike in activity beginning around August 20 climatologically. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)…

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TS Don strengthening over the central Atlantic; disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic could slowly develop

TS Don strengthening over the central Atlantic; disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic could slowly develop

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Tropical Storm Don has persisted over the central Atlantic for the last several days without much change in intensity, but now appears to be on a strengthening trend. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Don was centered near 33.8°N 40.3°W, and was moving westward at approximately 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1004 mb. Don, which formed as a subtropical cyclone last Friday, had been struggling to produce…

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Subtropical Storm Don meanders over the central Atlantic, likely to stay weak

Subtropical Storm Don meanders over the central Atlantic, likely to stay weak

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The Atlantic’s fifth tropical or subtropical storm of the season, Don, formed early Friday over the central subtropical Atlantic. The first storm to form in the month of July, Don is currently no threat to land, and is only in a marginally favorable environment. July only averages approximately one tropical or subtropical storm per year, and Don is the only named storm to form in July so far which is not unusual. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, Subtropical Storm…

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TS Cindy struggling with wind shear, likely to dissipate in the next day or so; regeneration possible

TS Cindy struggling with wind shear, likely to dissipate in the next day or so; regeneration possible

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Tropical Storm Cindy, which peaked with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph yesterday, has weakened today as it feels the effects of southwesterly shear. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Cindy was centered near 20.9°N 58.0°W, and was moving northwestward at approximately 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. Cindy consists of a disorganized, fully exposed low-level circulation with disorganized convective activity to its east. It already…

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Bret losing organization near the Lesser Antilles, TD Four forms in central Atlantic

Bret losing organization near the Lesser Antilles, TD Four forms in central Atlantic

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Tropical Storm Bret is about to bring tropical storm conditions to the Windward Islands as it begins to become more disorganized. Bret is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean as wind shear is expected to increase. In addition to Bret, a tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression Four early this morning. TD Four is likely to intensify into a weak-moderate tropical storm, but should not be a threat to any land areas. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical…

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Tropical Storm Bret strengthens as it approaches Windward Islands, 93L almost a tropical depression

Tropical Storm Bret strengthens as it approaches Windward Islands, 93L almost a tropical depression

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Tropical Storm Bret has gained some strength today over the central tropical Atlantic, and is likely near its peak intensity as it is expected to pass through the Lesser Antilles tomorrow evening. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for much of the region. In addition to Bret, Invest 93L over the eastern tropical Atlantic appears to be on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression, and will likely develop tomorrow. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm…

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Tropical Storm Bret headed for Lesser Antilles, 93L also may develop

Tropical Storm Bret headed for Lesser Antilles, 93L also may develop

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Tropical Storm Bret, the third storm and second named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, was named Monday afternoon over the central tropical Atlantic. Bret tied the record for the earliest named storm in the Atlantic Main Development Region with…Tropical Storm Bret of 2017, which also happened to be the first Atlantic storm I ever covered on this blog. Bret is expected to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm on Thursday, though watches and warnings have…

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TD Three forms over the central tropical Atlantic, expected to strengthen and pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles; 93L could also develop

TD Three forms over the central tropical Atlantic, expected to strengthen and pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles; 93L could also develop

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A vigorous tropical wave over the central Atlantic acquired a sufficiently well-defined circulation Monday morning to be classified as Tropical Depression Three. It should be noted that it is quite unusual to see tropical development in this part of the basin this early in the season, with only two systems of at least tropical storm strength recorded in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles in the satellite era during June: Ana (1979) and Bret (2017). Coincidentally, if Three…

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Invest 92L could become rare June Cabo Verde-type tropical storm

Invest 92L could become rare June Cabo Verde-type tropical storm

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Invest 92L, a tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa 2 days ago, has a high chance to become the Atlantic’s second named storm of the season. 92L is unusual in that it is rare to see tropical cyclogenesis east of the Caribbean in the deep tropics during the month of June. If 92L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Bret. Coincidentally, the last tropical storm to form in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean during…

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Cyclonic Fury’s June 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: a battle between El Niño and a very warm Atlantic makes this forecast highly uncertain

Cyclonic Fury’s June 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: a battle between El Niño and a very warm Atlantic makes this forecast highly uncertain

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The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially began last Thursday, with Tropical Storm Arlene forming right as the season started (it was actually not the first classifiable system of the season, as an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January). As we get closer to the peak of the season, usually the upcoming hurricane season becomes easier to forecast. However, 2023 is shaping up to be quite unusual, and is quite possibly the most challenging June forecast I’ve had to write. With…

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