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Hilary expected to absorb Irwin, Nesat headed for Taiwan, Atlantic low pressure system may develop

Hilary expected to absorb Irwin, Nesat headed for Taiwan, Atlantic low pressure system may develop

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There are several areas to watch in the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Western Pacific today as the global tropics remain active. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary and Tropical Storm Irwin expected to begin Fujiwhara Interaction this weekend. The global models continue to indicate that the larger and stronger Hilary will be the dominant cyclone. In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure has formed from a tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and has a chance…

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Tropical wave over Eastern Atlantic may slowly develop

Tropical wave over Eastern Atlantic may slowly develop

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A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has the potential to develop into the next Atlantic tropical cyclone as it moves slowly westward at about 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within five days. The wave is currently accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the short term, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is located…

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Twin hurricanes Hilary and Irwin in the Eastern Pacific expected to undergo Fujiwhara interaction, a system worth watching in the Atlantic

Twin hurricanes Hilary and Irwin in the Eastern Pacific expected to undergo Fujiwhara interaction, a system worth watching in the Atlantic

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This week could get very interesting in the Eastern Pacific as Hurricanes Hilary and Irwin are expected to interact with each other in a rare phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect. Most global models indicate that Hilary, the stronger and larger storm, will be the dominant cyclone and Irwin is likely going to be absorbed into Hilary’s circulation. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Greg has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is expected to become a remnant low during the next day…

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Noru holding steady in West Pacific, Kulap weakening, Sonca headed for Vietnam

Noru holding steady in West Pacific, Kulap weakening, Sonca headed for Vietnam

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In the Western Pacific, the tropics remain very active with three active tropical cyclones. Typhoon Noru is changing little in intensity as it spins out in the open Western Pacific.  Tropical Storm Kulap is weakening, and is likely to be absorbed by Noru later this week. Tropical Storm Sonca is moving into the Gulf of Tonkin and is expected to make landfall in central Vietnam. Noru likely to spin over the open Pacific for over a week Typhoon Noru weakened…

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Tropical Storms Hilary and Irwin form in East Pacific, Noru becomes the first typhoon of 2017

Tropical Storms Hilary and Irwin form in East Pacific, Noru becomes the first typhoon of 2017

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Two tropical depressions in the Eastern Pacific have strengthened into named tropical storms: Tropical Depression Nine-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Hilary, and Tropical Depression Ten-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Irwin. Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane, while Irwin also has a chance to become a hurricane. In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Noru has strengthened into a typhoon, a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, making it the first typhoon of the 2017 season and…

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A look at the Atlantic: July 22, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: July 22, 2017

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Because of the recent active tropics, especially in the Eastern Pacific, I have not been able to release a typical “A Look at the Atlantic” post. I decided to do one today to give an update on the current state of the Atlantic and when we can expect to see our next tropical cyclone form. Sea surface temperatures Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm throughout the Atlantic basin, and are now warm enough to support development in most areas…

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The Pacific Seven: Tropical Cyclone Outbreak across the North Pacific, Atlantic remains quiet

The Pacific Seven: Tropical Cyclone Outbreak across the North Pacific, Atlantic remains quiet

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While the Atlantic basin remains quiet, the Pacific has exploded with a total of seven tropical cyclones active this evening, although all are fairly weak. Two are in the Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Nine-E. One is in the Central Pacific – Tropical Storm Fernanda, which was previously a powerful Category 4 hurricane last week. Four are in the Western Pacific: Tropical Storms Noru and Kulap as well as Tropical Depressions 08W and 10W. A possible eighth…

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Atlantic once again becomes quiet; five systems in the East Pacific

Atlantic once again becomes quiet; five systems in the East Pacific

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After Tropical Storm Don opened up into a tropical wave late Tuesday night, the Atlantic basin has gone quiet. Invest 96L is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and has been removed from the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook. Another quiet period looks likely in the Atlantic basin, perhaps for as long as a few weeks. On the flip side, the Eastern Pacific remains very active, with three active tropical cyclones and two other systems that…

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Rare event for July: Four simultaneous tropical cyclones in Atlantic and East Pacific

Rare event for July: Four simultaneous tropical cyclones in Atlantic and East Pacific

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On Tuesday, a rare event occurred for the earliest time since 1997: four tropical cyclones were simultaneously active in the National Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility (Atlantic and East Pacific). Hurricane Fernanda, Tropical Storm Greg, Tropical Depression Eight-E, and Tropical Storm Don were all simultaneously active Tuesday afternoon, but Tropical Storm Don has likely degenerated into an open tropical wave. The three East Pacific storms should not be a threat to land. Tropical Storm Don likely now an open wave…

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Tropical Storm Don forms in Atlantic, East Pacific remains active

Tropical Storm Don forms in Atlantic, East Pacific remains active

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Invest 95L quickly developed into Tropical Storm Don Monday afternoon east of the Windward Islands, continuing the fast start to the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter identified a small but well-defined low-level circulation. Don is the fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season; the average date for the formation of the fourth named storm is not until August 23.  In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 97E has developed into Tropical Depression Seven-E, which has…

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