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A history of October tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of October tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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The Atlantic gradually begins to slow down in activity in October in a majority of years, but the month has seen its fair share of strong hurricanes. The month of October, on average, sees two named storms form in the Atlantic, with one becoming a hurricane and a major hurricane forming about once every two years. Although October is generally less active than September, six of the last seven Atlantic hurricanes have had their strongest storm peak in intensity in…

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The Atlantic goes quiet as October begins

The Atlantic goes quiet as October begins

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The Atlantic basin now has no active tropical cyclones or disturbances being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This is the first time that has occurred since August 2 – 60 days ago. Even though the peak season has passed, it should be noted that the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. The Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30, and an average of 3 named storms form after this date, including 1-2 hurricanes. A major…

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Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

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For the first time since the morning of August 23, no tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic basin, as Lee and Maria have both transitioned into extratropical lows. There is only one disturbance that has a chance to develop in the short term – Invest 99L, which is located near the coast of Northeastern Florida. 99L has become better organized this evening, with thunderstorm activity increasing to the east of the center. As of 00:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 99L…

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Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

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With Tropical Storms Lee and Maria expected to both turn extratropical on Saturday, the 37-day streak with an Atlantic tropical cyclone active at all times is in jeopardy. There are two new tropical disturbances that may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days (including Invest 99L) – but neither is likely to become a hurricane or a major threat. The first one, Invest 99L, is a weak area of low pressure located just inland over Southern Florida….

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Invest 99L may develop over next few days east of Florida

Invest 99L may develop over next few days east of Florida

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A large area of disturbed weather – designated Invest 99L – has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba, and the Florida Straits. This area of disturbed weather has moderate potential to develop into a weak tropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 99L was centered near 24.2°N 79.9°W, and was moving slowly northward. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. On Friday, an area of low…

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Maria and Lee expected to become extratropical this weekend, watching a new disturbance for development

Maria and Lee expected to become extratropical this weekend, watching a new disturbance for development

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Tropical Storm Maria restrengthened into a minimal hurricane on Wednesday as it turned to the northeast over the subtropical Atlantic. Maria is heading out to sea, and is likely to become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane Lee became the fifth major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday morning when it strengthened into a category 3 hurricane over the open Atlantic, but has since weakened to a category 2 hurricane. Lee, like Maria, is expected to transition…

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Maria expected to remain offshore of North Carolina, though direct impacts are still expected in coastal areas

Maria expected to remain offshore of North Carolina, though direct impacts are still expected in coastal areas

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Hurricane Maria is gradually weakening as it moves over cool waters, and is expected to remain offshore of the United States. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Hurricane Maria was centered near 32.3°N 73.1°W, and was moving northward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 969 mb. The structure of Maria does not resemble a typical hurricane, as the convection is fairly shallow and nearly all of the hurricane force…

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Maria weakens to a category 1 hurricane; Lee becomes the eighth hurricane of the season

Maria weakens to a category 1 hurricane; Lee becomes the eighth hurricane of the season

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Hurricane Maria has begun to weaken as it moves over the cold wake left behind by Hurricane Jose, and is now a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Maria was centered near 30.0°N 73.0°W, and was moving northward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 80 knots (90 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 950 mb. Additional slow weakening is likely as Maria is moving over cooler waters and wind shear…

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Maria likely to pass just east of Outer Banks, regenerated Lee could become a hurricane, Pilar forms in East Pacific

Maria likely to pass just east of Outer Banks, regenerated Lee could become a hurricane, Pilar forms in East Pacific

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Hurricane Maria remains a category 3 hurricane over the western Atlantic, and is likely to pass just offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Wednesday before likely turning to the east-northeast on Thursday. Even though Maria is not likely to make a direct landfall, direct impacts are still likely along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Maria is not likely to have a significant impact over inland North Carolina, however, unless it takes a farther west track than anticipated….

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Maria restrengthens as it nears Turks and Caicos Islands, Jose now a post-tropical cyclone

Maria restrengthens as it nears Turks and Caicos Islands, Jose now a post-tropical cyclone

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Hurricane Maria restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane on Thursday as it developed a new, large eye after moving away from Puerto Rico. Maria is likely at its secondary peak intensity, and a slow weakening trend is likely to begin this weekend as it recurves out into the Atlantic. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Maria was centered near 21.0°N 70.2°W and was moving northwestward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 110 knots (125 mph), with an estimated…

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