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TS Carlotta near the coast of Mexico, disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may slightly develop

TS Carlotta near the coast of Mexico, disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may slightly develop

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Tropical Storm Carlotta over the Eastern Pacific has moved slower than anticipated and remains offshore southern Mexico. In the Atlantic, a trough is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near the Yucatan Peninsula, and has a low chance to develop into a tropical cyclone by Monday as it approaches the Texas coast. Carlotta remains offshore Mexico but likely to move inland tonight or early tomorrow As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Storm Carlotta was centered near…

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Bud a Tropical Depression, Four-E now TS Carlotta, a new Caribbean disturbance to watch

Bud a Tropical Depression, Four-E now TS Carlotta, a new Caribbean disturbance to watch

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Now a tropical depression, once-powerful Bud is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone over the narrow Gulf of California. To the east of Bud, Tropical Depression Four-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlotta, and is expected to make landfall in the Mexican state of Guerrero or Oaxaca early Saturday morning. In the Atlantic, a sharp surface trough has developed near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to merge with the remnants of…

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TS Bud headed for Baja California Sur, another eastern Pacific tropical depression

TS Bud headed for Baja California Sur, another eastern Pacific tropical depression

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The active period in the eastern Pacific continues. Tropical Storm Bud is approaching Baja California Sur this evening, and is expected to make two landfalls (one in Baja California Sur late tonight and a second along the coast of Mainland Mexico late Friday night as a tropical depression). To the east of Bud, a new tropical depression has developed, the fourth of the season for the eastern Pacific basin. In the Atlantic, Invest 91L is little threat to develop, but…

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Bud weakens to a tropical storm, 93E may develop, 91L unlikely to develop

Bud weakens to a tropical storm, 93E may develop, 91L unlikely to develop

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Hurricane Bud weakened to a tropical storm on Wednesday morning as it tracked northwestward over cooler waters. Bud should continue to gradually weaken over the next couple of days as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. To the east of Bud, an area of low pressure has developed (designated Invest 93E) and could gradually develop into a tropical depression by Saturday. Invest 91L remains active over the Northwestern Caribbean, but is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone due to…

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Bud begins to weaken, Invest 91L unlikely to develop over Northwestern Caribbean, another Pacific disturbance

Bud begins to weaken, Invest 91L unlikely to develop over Northwestern Caribbean, another Pacific disturbance

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After peaking as a Category 4 hurricane during the early morning hours Tuesday, Hurricane Bud over the eastern Pacific has begun to weaken this afternoon as it moves over cooler waters. Now a low-end Category 3 hurricane, continued weakening is expected for Bud over the next few days before it becomes a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday. In addition to Bud, there is a disturbance to watch over the Caribbean (Invest 91L) and another potential eastern Pacific system. As of…

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Bud a major hurricane, Aletta dissipates, a Caribbean disturbance to watch

Bud a major hurricane, Aletta dissipates, a Caribbean disturbance to watch

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Hurricane Bud over the Eastern Pacific rapidly intensified overnight into the second major hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season. Bud is now a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and some Dvorak estimates suggest it may be even stronger. To the west of Bud, Tropical Storm Aletta has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. In the Atlantic basin, there is a disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea that has a low chance of tropical development by…

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Bud rapidly develops into a hurricane, Aletta hanging on as a tropical storm

Bud rapidly develops into a hurricane, Aletta hanging on as a tropical storm

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After being only a tropical depression 24 hours ago, Hurricane Bud has rapidly developed over the far eastern Pacific and is expected to continue intensifying for the next 24-36 hours or so. To the west of Bud, Aletta continues to hang on as a tropical storm. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Hurricane Bud was centered near 15.3°N 104.2°W, and was moving northwestward at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph), with an estimated minimum…

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Aletta rapidly weakening, TD Three-E forms over the Eastern Pacific and likely to intensify

Aletta rapidly weakening, TD Three-E forms over the Eastern Pacific and likely to intensify

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Hurricane Aletta over the Eastern Pacific has rapidly weakened today. A combination of strong wind shear, cooler waters, and dry air has severely taken a toll on the storm, and Aletta is now a minimal Category 1 hurricane with an exposed low-level circulation. Aletta should continue to weaken over the next two days, and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon, if not sooner. To the east of Aletta, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Three-E…

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Aletta vaults to a Category 4 hurricane, 92E expected to develop

Aletta vaults to a Category 4 hurricane, 92E expected to develop

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Unexpectedly, Hurricane Aletta over the eastern Pacific underwent a remarkable period of rapid intensification overnight, and is now a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some slight additional intensification cannot be ruled out, Aletta is likely close to its peak intensity and weakening should commence tonight or early tomorrow. Aletta remains no threat to land. To the east of Aletta, Invest 92E has been designated, and is expected to develop into a tropical depression this weekend…

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Aletta becomes a hurricane, Bud likely to follow; Caribbean and Gulf may warrant monitoring next week

Aletta becomes a hurricane, Bud likely to follow; Caribbean and Gulf may warrant monitoring next week

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The eastern Pacific remains very active. Tropical Storm Aletta strengthened into the first hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season Thursday afternoon, and is likely to strengthen a little more as it moves west-northwestward away from land. To the east of Aletta, a tropical wave is likely to develop into a new Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone by Sunday. The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now, but the GFS, UKMET and CMC models are all indicating that the Northwestern Caribbean and…

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