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Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

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The Atlantic’s first named storm of 2019 – Subtropical Storm Andrea – developed Monday evening southwest of Bermuda. Andrea marks the fifth straight year in which the Atlantic basin has had a named storm develop before the official start of the season (June 1). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the disturbance (90L) this afternoon, and found a well-defined circulation. As of 6:30 p.m. EDT Monday, Subtropical Storm Andrea was centered near 28.8°N 68.7°W, and was moving northward at…

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Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

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The Atlantic’s first “Invest” – short for area of investigation – was designated early Sunday morning. Invest 90L is currently producing disorganized shower activity well east of the Bahamas, but a narrow window for potential tropical or subtropical development exists between late Monday and Tuesday. If 90L becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be named Andrea. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.0°N 66.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an…

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Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

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There are two systems to currently watch in the tropics: one in the Atlantic, and one in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific season began three days ago, but the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin for two more weeks. Both are given a medium (40%) chance of development by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) over the next five days. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 91E was centered near 12.4°N 93.4°W, and was moving little. Maximum sustained winds…

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Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

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It is only the second day of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, and there has already been a system designated an “Invest” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather that the NHC believes has a chance of tropical cyclone development. A disorganized area of disturbed weather, Invest 91E, may slowly develop over the next several days as it moves little. As of 12:00 UTC May 16,…

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Cyclonic Fury’s 2019 Pacific hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average activity expected

Cyclonic Fury’s 2019 Pacific hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average activity expected

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Today is May 15, the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. No tropical cyclones have developed yet in this basin in 2019; 2017 featured the pre-season Tropical Storm Adrian and 2018 featured the pre-season Tropical Depression One-E. The Eastern and Central Pacific is coming off a record-breaking 2018 season which featured 23 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5 hurricanes, and a record-high 318 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units. With a weak El Nino event…

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Slightly above average but destructive 2018 Atlantic hurricane season ends

Slightly above average but destructive 2018 Atlantic hurricane season ends

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As usual, November 30 marks the official end of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Activity this season spanned approximately five months, with Tropical Storm Alberto forming as a subtropical depression May 25 over the Northwestern Caribbean, and ending on October 31 with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Oscar over the central Atlantic. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season produced 16 tropical cyclones, 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, with an approximate Accumulated Cyclone Energy…

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Michael becomes a major hurricane as it heads for the Florida Panhandle, Leslie likely to become a hurricane again, Nadine forms in the eastern Atlantic

Michael becomes a major hurricane as it heads for the Florida Panhandle, Leslie likely to become a hurricane again, Nadine forms in the eastern Atlantic

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The Atlantic tropics are extremely active for October, with the basin having three named storms simultaneously active in the month for the first time since 1995. The strongest of these storms, Hurricane Michael, has intensified into the second major hurricane of the season over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and some additional intensification is expected before Michael makes landfall over the western Florida Panhandle. Long-lived Leslie, close to regaining hurricane intensity for the second time, could near Madeira Island and…

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Leslie a Category 1 hurricane, development possible in NW Caribbean or Gulf by early next week, Sergio and Walaka in the Pacific

Leslie a Category 1 hurricane, development possible in NW Caribbean or Gulf by early next week, Sergio and Walaka in the Pacific

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Although the northern hemisphere tropics begin to slowly wind down in the month of October, there is still plenty of activity to discuss today. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie is barely hanging onto hurricane status as it begins to turn to the north over the central Atlantic. A Central American Gyre (CAG) may also help spawn the development of a new tropical cyclone in the Northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico by early next week. In the Pacific, Hurricanes Sergio…

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Leslie now a tropical storm over the central Atlantic, Rosa headed for Baja California, Sergio and Walaka form

Leslie now a tropical storm over the central Atlantic, Rosa headed for Baja California, Sergio and Walaka form

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There are several systems to watch in the tropics today in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. In the Atlantic, Subtropical Storm Leslie has transitioned into a tropical storm, and could become a hurricane by late next week though it is not likely to impact any land areas in the near future. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Rosa is likely to weaken and strike northern Baja California as a tropical storm, while Tropical Storm Sergio has formed south of Mexico….

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Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

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Although the Atlantic currently has no tropical cyclones active, there are four systems being monitored for potential development. The first, Invest 97L, is an area of low pressure east of the Windward Islands which is headed for less favorable conditions, and development appears unlikely. The second, Invest 98L, is a broad area of low pressure southeast of Bermuda, which could gradually gain tropical characteristics some time next week. The third, Invest 99L, is a vigorous tropical wave which has recently…

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