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Category: Active Tropics

Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

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It is only the second day of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, and there has already been a system designated an “Invest” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather that the NHC believes has a chance of tropical cyclone development. A disorganized area of disturbed weather, Invest 91E, may slowly develop over the next several days as it moves little. As of 12:00 UTC May 16,…

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Area of disturbed weather near Bahamas could slowly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics

Area of disturbed weather near Bahamas could slowly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics

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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins one month from today, but the basin is already showing its first signs of life. A non-tropical trough of low pressure has developed near the Bahamas and is currently disorganized, but conditions may become a bit more favorable for some slight development by late this weekend if it remains offshore the Atlantic coast. If this system develops into a subtropical or tropical storm, it will be named Andrea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)…

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Michael becomes a major hurricane as it heads for the Florida Panhandle, Leslie likely to become a hurricane again, Nadine forms in the eastern Atlantic

Michael becomes a major hurricane as it heads for the Florida Panhandle, Leslie likely to become a hurricane again, Nadine forms in the eastern Atlantic

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The Atlantic tropics are extremely active for October, with the basin having three named storms simultaneously active in the month for the first time since 1995. The strongest of these storms, Hurricane Michael, has intensified into the second major hurricane of the season over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and some additional intensification is expected before Michael makes landfall over the western Florida Panhandle. Long-lived Leslie, close to regaining hurricane intensity for the second time, could near Madeira Island and…

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Leslie a Category 1 hurricane, development possible in NW Caribbean or Gulf by early next week, Sergio and Walaka in the Pacific

Leslie a Category 1 hurricane, development possible in NW Caribbean or Gulf by early next week, Sergio and Walaka in the Pacific

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Although the northern hemisphere tropics begin to slowly wind down in the month of October, there is still plenty of activity to discuss today. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie is barely hanging onto hurricane status as it begins to turn to the north over the central Atlantic. A Central American Gyre (CAG) may also help spawn the development of a new tropical cyclone in the Northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico by early next week. In the Pacific, Hurricanes Sergio…

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Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

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Although the Atlantic currently has no tropical cyclones active, there are four systems being monitored for potential development. The first, Invest 97L, is an area of low pressure east of the Windward Islands which is headed for less favorable conditions, and development appears unlikely. The second, Invest 98L, is a broad area of low pressure southeast of Bermuda, which could gradually gain tropical characteristics some time next week. The third, Invest 99L, is a vigorous tropical wave which has recently…

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Florence slightly weaker but still a major threat to Carolinas, Helene and Isaac weakening, SS Joyce forms over the subtropical Atlantic, 95L likely to develop

Florence slightly weaker but still a major threat to Carolinas, Helene and Isaac weakening, SS Joyce forms over the subtropical Atlantic, 95L likely to develop

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The Atlantic is extremely active today, with six – SIX! – systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The most serious and strongest of these systems is Hurricane Florence, which has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane but is still expected to bring potentially catastrophic impact to the coast of the Carolinas. In addition, Hurricane Helene is gradually weakening as it heads for a less favorable environment, and Tropical Storm Isaac east of the Caribbean has become very…

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Tuesday evening Florence update: Maintaining Category 4 strength

Tuesday evening Florence update: Maintaining Category 4 strength

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Hurricane Florence has changed little in intensity today. Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that Florence has not strengthened since this afternoon. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Florence was centered near 28.4°N 68.7°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 120 knots (140 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 946 mb. However, reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that this intensity may be a little generous. Florence continues to pose…

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Florence vaults to Category 4 status, Gordon weakening inland, 92L expected to develop

Florence vaults to Category 4 status, Gordon weakening inland, 92L expected to develop

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Somewhat unexpectedly, Hurricane Florence rapidly intensified into the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday morning, and has since strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane. Last night, Tropical Storm Gordon made landfall near the Alabama-Mississippi border as a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, and has rapidly weakened to a tropical depression today. There is also Invest 92L to watch in the eastern Atlantic, which is likely to become a tropical depression by…

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TS Gordon nearing landfall over the Northern Gulf Coast, Florence now a hurricane over the open Atlantic, 92L expected to develop

TS Gordon nearing landfall over the Northern Gulf Coast, Florence now a hurricane over the open Atlantic, 92L expected to develop

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The Atlantic tropics are very busy today, with Florence becoming the third hurricane of the season, Tropical Storm Gordon nearing landfall near the Alabama-Mississippi border, and two more tropical waves (including Invest 92L) are likely to develop by this weekend. The peak of the season is here, and the Atlantic is likely to remain quite busy for the next couple weeks. Gordon likely to make landfall as a strong tropical storm in a couple hours Tropical Storm Gordon has failed…

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Florence slightly weaker, 91L likely to develop in eastern Gulf of Mexico, Norman and Olivia spinning in the eastern Pacific

Florence slightly weaker, 91L likely to develop in eastern Gulf of Mexico, Norman and Olivia spinning in the eastern Pacific

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As we near the peak of hurricane season, the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific are both quite active today. Tropical Storm Florence over the eastern tropical Atlantic has weakened slightly this morning as its low-level circulation has become exposed.  Invest 91L, currently located near the Bahamas, is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple days. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Norman has re-attained Category 4 hurricane status, while Tropical Storm Olivia…

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