Invest 92L, a tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa 2 days ago, has a high chance to become the Atlantic’s second named storm of the season. 92L is unusual in that it is rare to see tropical cyclogenesis east of the Caribbean in the deep tropics during the month of June. If 92L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Bret. Coincidentally, the last tropical storm to form in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean during June was Tropical Storm Bret in 2017.

As of 12:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 92L was centered near 10.0°N 26.6°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1012 mb, and was moving westward at about 15-20 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 92L a 40 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within 7 days. 92L still remains fairly disorganized this afternoon, with two distinct vorticity maximums that have been in the process of merging. 92L is likely to gradually organize into a tropical depression during the next few days.

There have been two distinct model solutions for Invest 92L. Some models (ECMWF, CMC) and ensemble members having a weaker 92L tracking into the northeastern Caribbean, while some other models (GFS) show 92L intensifying significantly and turning northwest east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent model runs seem to be shifting towards the former solution, which would be more likely for this time of year. Because 92L still has a ways to go to become a tropical cyclone, I think the western solution is more likely. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of 92L.

Based on the 12z Saturday SHIPS guidance, the environment for 92L appears generally conducive for intensification. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures of 27-28°C (80.6°F-82.4°F), light-to-moderate wind shear, and a fairly moist mid-level environment should allow 92L to gradually develop. One potential hindrance is forward speed of greater than 20 mph over the next 2 days, which could delay development and would make the western solution more likely. Regardless, there is a chance for 92L to become a truly anomalous storm over the tropical Atlantic if it organizes quicker than anticipated.