For the first time since 2011, the Atlantic basin has two tropical cyclones active at once in the month of July. Tiny Beryl, which was a hurricane yesterday, has quickly weakened today, and is now a poorly organized tropical storm with little deep convection remaining. This is good news for the Lesser Antilles, as Beryl is likely to remain weak when it passes the island instead of the potential hurricane predicted yesterday. In the western Atlantic, Tropical Depression Three is slowly beginning to become better organized, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Chris on Sunday. While Chris-to-be could intensify into a hurricane by the middle of next week, it is likely to remain offshore the United States east coast and no watches and warnings are in effect at this time.

Beryl quickly losing organization as it approaches the eastern Caribbean

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Beryl was centered near 12.7°N 52.7°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1003 mb. It is possible this intensity could be generous given the lack of much deep convection associated with the storm. Earlier today, the tiny low-level circulation of Beryl was fully exposed to view, but deep convection has redeveloped over the center during the last couple hours. Conditions for Beryl are expected to remain hostile for Beryl for the next few days as it approaches and enters the eastern Caribbean Sea, and it could open up into a tropical wave at any time. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots in about 36 hours while Beryl’s forward speed increases. If Beryl’s remnants reemerge into the western Atlantic intact, regeneration into a tropical cyclone is a distinct possibility, which is shown by the ECMWF, CMC and ICON models. However, if Beryl regenerates, it should remain well offshore the United States. Although Beryl is likely to be a weak tropical storm or even a tropical wave as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, heavy rainfall and tropical storm force wind gusts are possible. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustaius, and St. Marteen.

TD Three gradually becoming better organized as it moves little, expected to become a hurricane off the U.S. east coast

Late yesterday, the trough of the low pressure over the western Atlantic developed into Tropical Depression Three, and is slowly becoming better organized today. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Depression Three was centered near 32.9°N 75.3°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1014 mb. Although sea surface temperatures are warmer than 28°C (82.4°F), the circulation of the depression remains quite broad. Only slight strengthening is likely for the next couple days due to the depression’s close proximity to a cold front, and the depression is currently in a weak steering regime. Vertical wind shear is expected to decrease to below 10 knots on Monday as the system begins to turn to the northeast, and strengthening is likely after that time. Mid-level dry air with relative humidity values of less than 40 percent may hinder rapid intensification by that time, though. Regardless, much of the intensity guidance brings the system to hurricane strength by late Tuesday over the Gulf Stream. The HWRF model is particularly aggressive, showing the potential for the system to become a major hurricane. Although Three is not expected to make landfall in the United States, Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of the system. At present, the main threat with Three is high surf and rip currents. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression early tomorrow morning.

I will be back with another post on Beryl and Three (likely to be Tropical Storm Chris by that time) tomorrow.