Tropical Storm Franklin emerged into the Bay of Campeche earlier this evening, and has already begun to strengthen. Franklin is likely to strengthen some more over the next 24-30 hours before landfall occurs early on Thursday, and the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast brings Franklin to a minimal hurricane before landfall in Mainland Mexico. Hurricane Warnings, the first of 2017, have been issued for a portion of Mexico.

As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT) Tuesday, Tropical Storm Franklin was centered near 20.3°N 91.3°W and was moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 996 mb based on data from two reconnaissance aircraft. The structure of Franklin held up fairly well crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, because of its flat terrain. There have been some indications that a banding eye-like feature may already be beginning to develop. Franklin is likely to strengthen over the next 24-30 hours as it approaches landfall in Mainland Mexico, with conditions expected to be favorable. Aside from some light to moderate northerly shear of about 10-15 knots, sea surface temperatures are expected to be around 30°C (86°F) with mid-level relative humidity values mostly above 70 percent. The official NHC forecast brings Franklin to minimal hurricane strength prior to landfall. However, some of the regional models indicate that Franklin could strengthen to around 70-75 knots (80-85 mph) before landfall. The HWRF and HMON hurricane models are more bullish and predict that Franklin could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall. Franklin will need to be watched for possible rapid intensification as it traverses the Bay of Campeche, since its structure has held up well over the Yucatan and conditions are expected to be favorable.

A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect from the coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Celestun, and the coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco. Residents of these areas should prepare for possible tropical storm or hurricane conditions as Franklin makes landfall. Franklin’s landfall is expected to occur during the early morning hours on Thursday.

Watching Invest 99L for possible development east of the Bahamas

Invest 99L is not likely to develop in the short term, but could develop this weekend when it is expected to enter a more favorable environment east of the Bahamas. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 99L was centered near 16.0°N 53.3°W and was moving west-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1011 mb. NHC gave 90L a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance within five days. Wind shear around 99L is currently fairly strong, but is expected to decrease somewhat by this weekend. The 12z Tuesday UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF model runs all developed 99L into a tropical depression by Sunday. However, the 18z Tuesday GFS model run disagreed, and predicted no development. The ECMWF model is the most bullish, and predicts that 99L will strengthen into a hurricane by early next week off the United States East Coast, before eventually re-curving out to sea due to an approaching trough. Most of the European EPS ensemble members agreed, predicting that 99L would most likely recurve out to sea, possibly as strong as a category 2 hurricane. The upper-level environment is expected to be fairly conducive, but some dry air could suppress development. While a recurve currently appears to be the most likely outcome if development occurs, residents along the Eastern United States Coast should closely monitor the development of 99L since the track is currently far from being set in stone. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Gert.

I will be back tomorrow for an update on Franklin and 99L.