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Tropical Storm Bret strengthens as it approaches Windward Islands, 93L almost a tropical depression

Tropical Storm Bret strengthens as it approaches Windward Islands, 93L almost a tropical depression

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Tropical Storm Bret has gained some strength today over the central tropical Atlantic, and is likely near its peak intensity as it is expected to pass through the Lesser Antilles tomorrow evening. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for much of the region. In addition to Bret, Invest 93L over the eastern tropical Atlantic appears to be on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression, and will likely develop tomorrow. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm…

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Tropical Storm Bret headed for Lesser Antilles, 93L also may develop

Tropical Storm Bret headed for Lesser Antilles, 93L also may develop

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Tropical Storm Bret, the third storm and second named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, was named Monday afternoon over the central tropical Atlantic. Bret tied the record for the earliest named storm in the Atlantic Main Development Region with…Tropical Storm Bret of 2017, which also happened to be the first Atlantic storm I ever covered on this blog. Bret is expected to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm on Thursday, though watches and warnings have…

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TD Three forms over the central tropical Atlantic, expected to strengthen and pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles; 93L could also develop

TD Three forms over the central tropical Atlantic, expected to strengthen and pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles; 93L could also develop

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A vigorous tropical wave over the central Atlantic acquired a sufficiently well-defined circulation Monday morning to be classified as Tropical Depression Three. It should be noted that it is quite unusual to see tropical development in this part of the basin this early in the season, with only two systems of at least tropical storm strength recorded in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles in the satellite era during June: Ana (1979) and Bret (2017). Coincidentally, if Three…

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Barry makes landfall in central Louisiana as a hurricane, TD Four-E expected to dissipate

Barry makes landfall in central Louisiana as a hurricane, TD Four-E expected to dissipate

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Hurricane Barry made landfall in central Louisiana today, near the Marsh Island area. The estimated intensity was 65 knots (70 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 993 mb. However, the exact time and location of landfall has not yet been officially determined due to Barry’s disorganized structure. Barry has since weakened to a tropical storm, and should continue to weaken over the next few days. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Barry was centered near…

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Florence significantly weaker but expected to restrengthen, 92L and 93L likely to become Helene and Isaac

Florence significantly weaker but expected to restrengthen, 92L and 93L likely to become Helene and Isaac

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Due to strong wind shear, Hurricane Florence has become much less organized today, weakening into a Category 1 hurricane. Florence is likely to fall below hurricane strength tonight or early tomorrow, but is likely to begin restrengthening by Saturday as it enters a more favorable environment. Florence is expected to pass south of Bermuda next Tuesday, though direct impacts are still possible to the small island. It is a possibility that Florence could impact the United States East Coast, though…

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Invest 93L over Caribbean still may develop, but Invest 92E in East Pacific more likely to develop

Invest 93L over Caribbean still may develop, but Invest 92E in East Pacific more likely to develop

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There are two tropical disturbances currently being monitored for development – Invest 93L over the Western Caribbean Sea and Invest 92E over the Eastern Pacific. Both have the opportunity to develop through the weekend. Invest 93L still could become a tropical cyclone, likely to help boost a nor’easter early next week The broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean – Invest 93L – has not become much better organized today. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 93L was…

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Little change with Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea

Little change with Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea

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Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized since yesterday. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 93L was centered near 13.0°N 83.4°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. It should be noted that an ASCAT pass from earlier today suggests that this wind estimate may be generous. 93L is producing widespread, but poorly organized, thunderstorms, both inland Central America and over the…

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93L over Western Caribbean may develop this week

93L over Western Caribbean may develop this week

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A broad, but not very well organized, area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Nicaraguan Coast. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 93L, and has a medium chance of becoming Tropical Depression Eighteen or Tropical Storm Philippe by late week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 93L a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, 93L was centered near 14.0°N 83.0°W, and was…

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Harvey re-enters the Gulf of Mexico, PTC 10 becoming less likely to develop, Invest 93L likely to develop

Harvey re-enters the Gulf of Mexico, PTC 10 becoming less likely to develop, Invest 93L likely to develop

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Tropical Storm Harvey restrengthened slightly today as it has emerged into the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico, but remains poorly organized and most of the convection is to the northwest of the center. Harvey is likely to make a second landfall in extreme eastern Texas or even western Louisiana early on Wednesday. Although Harvey is centered over water, the flood threat remains for Southeastern Texas. Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten has failed to develop a well-defined center of circulation today, and…

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92L becomes Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, expected to become Tropical Storm Bret, 93L poised to become Tropical Storm Cindy

92L becomes Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, expected to become Tropical Storm Bret, 93L poised to become Tropical Storm Cindy

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) unveiled a new product Sunday afternoon with the initiation of advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly Invest 92L). Potential TC Two is given a high (90 percent) chance of development within 48 hours by the NHC, and is expected to become Tropical Storm Bret tomorrow. Invest 93L in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea remains disorganized this evening, but the NHC gives 93L an 80 percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 90 percent chance…

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