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2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Invest 91L could develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Invest 91L could develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

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Today, June 1st, marks the official start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on time, there is a system with a serious chance of tropical development. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be a very unique one, with near-record warmth over the tropical Atlantic in spite of a a developing El Niño. I will provide more thoughts on the season as a whole in my forecast update next Tuesday. Among expert forecasters, there has been…

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2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins with two systems to watch – tropical system likely to affect western Florida this weekend

2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins with two systems to watch – tropical system likely to affect western Florida this weekend

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Today is June 1, the official start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Thus far, no tropical or subtropical cyclones have developed, which marks the first time since 2014 in which a pre-season tropical cyclone did not develop in the Atlantic basin. Regardless, the Atlantic is already showing signs of activity, and the Atlantic’s first named storm (Alex) will likely form late this week. This season will use List 2 of the six naming lists used to name tropical storms…

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Invest 90L northeast of Bermuda likely to become subtropical storm by Saturday morning, Invest 91L in Gulf running out of time to develop

Invest 90L northeast of Bermuda likely to become subtropical storm by Saturday morning, Invest 91L in Gulf running out of time to develop

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There continues to be two “Invests” – short for Area of Investigation – being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for potential tropical or subtropical development. Invest 90L is located northeast of Bermuda, and Invest 91L is located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Both of the systems have developed well-defined circulation centers, but lack sufficient organized deep convection as of this time. It appears likely that the Atlantic will have at least one subtropical or tropical cyclone develop prior…

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Two pre-season Invests, 90L and 91L, to watch in the Atlantic

Two pre-season Invests, 90L and 91L, to watch in the Atlantic

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After a recent increase in tropical and subtropical activity in the month of May, the National Hurricane Center announced in February its plans to issue routine Tropical Weather Outlooks starting on May 15 in 2021. It appears to have been the right decision. There are now two areas of interest being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for potential development: Invest 90L in the western Atlantic, which has a high chance of development, and Invest 91L in the Gulf of…

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91L very unlikely to develop as it brings heavy rainfall to the Western Gulf Coast

91L very unlikely to develop as it brings heavy rainfall to the Western Gulf Coast

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Due to its large size and increasing wind shear, Invest 91L has struggled to develop, and it is likely out of time to develop into a tropical cyclone. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 91L was centered near  23.8°N 97.4°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Although thunderstorm activity has increased today, the disturbance remains disorganized and continues to lack a well-defined circulation. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 91L…

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Little change with Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche

Little change with Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche

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Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche has not changed much in organization since yesterday. The associated thunderstorm activity remains somewhat disorganized, and the low-level circulation is not yet well defined enough to be classified as a tropical depression. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit 91L this afternoon, but the flight was canceled as 91L remains poorly organized. As of 18:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 91L was centered near 19.7°N 94.5°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained…

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Florence slightly weaker, 91L likely to develop in eastern Gulf of Mexico, Norman and Olivia spinning in the eastern Pacific

Florence slightly weaker, 91L likely to develop in eastern Gulf of Mexico, Norman and Olivia spinning in the eastern Pacific

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As we near the peak of hurricane season, the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific are both quite active today. Tropical Storm Florence over the eastern tropical Atlantic has weakened slightly this morning as its low-level circulation has become exposed.  Invest 91L, currently located near the Bahamas, is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple days. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Norman has re-attained Category 4 hurricane status, while Tropical Storm Olivia…

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Bud begins to weaken, Invest 91L unlikely to develop over Northwestern Caribbean, another Pacific disturbance

Bud begins to weaken, Invest 91L unlikely to develop over Northwestern Caribbean, another Pacific disturbance

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After peaking as a Category 4 hurricane during the early morning hours Tuesday, Hurricane Bud over the eastern Pacific has begun to weaken this afternoon as it moves over cooler waters. Now a low-end Category 3 hurricane, continued weakening is expected for Bud over the next few days before it becomes a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday. In addition to Bud, there is a disturbance to watch over the Caribbean (Invest 91L) and another potential eastern Pacific system. As of…

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Hurricane Nate makes landfall near the Mississippi River Mouth, 91L likely to develop

Hurricane Nate makes landfall near the Mississippi River Mouth, 91L likely to develop

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Hurricane Nate – the ninth hurricane of the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season – made landfall around 7:00 p.m. CDT near the Mouth of the Mississippi River in Southeastern Louisiana. Nate is the third hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season (the fourth if Hurricane Maria’s landfall in Puerto Rico is included). This season has featured the most hurricanes to make landfall in the United States since 2008. Nate has almost certainly peaked in intensity and is…

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Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

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Hurricane Gert is likely peaking in intensity as a category 2 hurricane, the strongest storm of the season so far. Gert was able to develop a well-defined eye and strengthen at an unusually high latitude – the strongest hurricane so far north by wind speed since Alex in 2004. Gert should transition into an extratropical cyclone by early on Friday. There are three tropical disturbances across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) that have a chance to develop (including Invests…

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