Rina now post-tropical, could the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season be over?

Rina now post-tropical, could the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season be over?

Official NHC forecast cone for Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina. (Source: National Hurricane Center)

Tropical Storm Rina transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone Thursday morning, with cold air being wrapped into its circulation. The post-tropical remnants of Rina should dissipate tomorrow or Saturday. The dissipation of Rina could mark the end of the extremely active and destructive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. But will it? Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until November 30, and it’s not out of the question to see development during the month of December. While the majority of Atlantic hurricane seasons have not featured a named storm form after this date, 7 of the top 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons by Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) before 2017 featured a tropical or subtropical storm form after November 9. So therefore, it is not out of the question that we could see Tropical or Subtropical Storm Sean develop before the end of the year.

Rainbow loop of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina, located over the Northern Atlantic. (Source: NOAA)

As of 10:00 a.m. EDT Thursday, Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina was centered near 47.0°N 45.5°W, and was moving northeastward at about 40 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 998 mb. Even though deep convection continues near the center, cold air has been wrapped into Rina’s circulation as it traverses very cold waters over the North Atlantic, and it is no longer considered a tropical cyclone. As noted above, Rina’s post-tropical remnants should dissipate in a day or two without affecting any land areas.

“Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017
Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking
since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year,
seven of them still had another tropical storm after today’s date.”

-National Hurricane Center forecaster Eric Blake, on the post-tropical transition of Rina

It is quite possible we may not see another tropical cyclone form in the Atlantic until 2018 – and in that case, the first name would be Alberto. However, it is also possible that we could see one more named storm form. I will be back tomorrow with a feature blog about the history of November tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin.

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