The short life of Tropical Storm Philippe came to an end on Sunday afternoon, as strong shear and a merger with a cold front has caused Philippe’s well-defined circulation to lose definition to the point where it can longer be considered a tropical cyclone. After Philippe, there are two non-threatening disturbances – one in the Atlantic and one in the Eastern Pacific – that could develop into a tropical cyclone as we get into November, the final month of the season.
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, the Remnants of Philippe were centered near 31.0°N 75.0°W, and were moving very quickly north-northeast at 46 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 991 mb. Strong shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will not allow regeneration to occur. Philippe has snapped a record-tying streak of ten consecutive named storms developing into hurricanes in the Atlantic.
What’s next after Philippe?
Although the season is winding down, the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific both have disturbances that could develop into tropical cyclones this week. In the Atlantic, a non-tropical low pressure system has formed about 1000 miles east of Bermuda, well southwest of the Azores. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance a 20 percent chance of development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance within five days. This disturbance should not pose a threat to land, and development, if any, should be limited. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Rina. Only five Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (1995, 2005, 2010, 2011, and 2012) have reached the “R” named storm.
In the Eastern Pacific, a small area of low pressure has been designated Invest 93E. As of 18:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 93E was centered near 10.8°N 90.4°W, and was moving westward to west-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. The NHC gives 93E a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days. The next name on the East Pacific naming list is Todd.
It should be noted that tropical development in the month of November is not uncommon, as a majority of Atlantic hurricane seasons have featured a named storm form in the month. Just last season, Hurricane Otto formed in the Southwestern Caribbean and made landfall in Nicaragua on November 24 (Thanksgiving Day) as a Category 3 major hurricane. More will be discussed about Atlantic tropical activity during the month of November this Wednesday.
I will be back with another post by Tuesday.