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Category: Tropical Weather Features

Could the Atlantic hurricane season start date be moved up to May 15 soon?

Could the Atlantic hurricane season start date be moved up to May 15 soon?

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Since 1965, the Atlantic hurricane season has been defined to be between June 1 and November 30. That could change soon if the recent trend of pre-season Atlantic tropical cyclone activity continues. The month of May has had 10 subtropical or tropical cyclone formations since 2007, 9 of which became named storms. None of these storms have reached hurricane strength, and there has not been a May hurricane recorded in the Atlantic basin since Alma in 1970. Since 2012, 7…

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A history of October tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of October tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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The Atlantic gradually begins to slow down in activity in October in a majority of years, but the month has seen its fair share of strong hurricanes. The month of October, on average, sees two named storms form in the Atlantic, with one becoming a hurricane and a major hurricane forming about once every two years. Although October is generally less active than September, six of the last seven Atlantic hurricanes have had their strongest storm peak in intensity in…

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A history of July tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of July tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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July is the second month of Atlantic hurricane season. It is often quiet in the Atlantic (some years have no activity at all in the month), but tends to be slightly more active than June. According to NOAA, 118 tropical storms and 55 hurricanes have formed in the month of July since reliable records began in 1851.  25 hurricanes have made landfall in the United States in the month of July, most recently Category 2 Hurricane Arthur in early July…

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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): An Explanation and Analysis of its Current State

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): An Explanation and Analysis of its Current State

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The amount of Atlantic hurricane activity in a season is most directly driven by two factors: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These two oscillations are the primary indices used in forecasting activity for the Atlantic hurricane season. The AMO is a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Atlantic Ocean, and is strongly correlated with the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons. While the ENSO changes nearly every year, the AMO is…

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The GFS model runs for 384 hours, but do not trust the model beyond 240 hours: here is why

The GFS model runs for 384 hours, but do not trust the model beyond 240 hours: here is why

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The American Global Forecast System (GFS) model is one of the most reliable models used by meteorologists to predict the tracks of tropical cyclones. It runs on six-hour intervals at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC, for 384 hours (16 days). The GFS is the only major tropical weather model that runs for 384 hours: the CMC and ECMWF models run for 240 hours (ten days), while the HWRF hurricane model runs for 126 hours (just over five days). The…

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A history of June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of June tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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June is the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and is on average the least active of the six months that make up the season. According to NOAA, the month of June has seen 92 total tropical cyclones since reliable records began in 1851. Of these 92 tropical cyclones, just 33 (35.9%) of them became hurricanes. This means that, on average, a named storm forms in June in slightly over half of all years. In uncommon cases, two or…

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Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

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As we approach the start of Atlantic hurricane season, a term you may see pop up now and then is “Accumulated Cyclone Energy.” Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measurement of the activity of a hurricane season, based on storm intensity and duration. It is calculated for each individual storm by taking the sum of the storm’s intensity, in knots, squared, at six-hour intervals, divided by 10000. For instance, if a storm had 40-knot winds for one advisory, the ACE…

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My visit to the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour

My visit to the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour

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On Wednesday, May 10, I was fortunate enough to get a chance to visit the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Awareness Tour at Raleigh-Durham International Airport. I had also attended this event several years ago, but I do not remember much about it. However, unlike last time, this time I was able to see the WC-130J AF309 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Last season I began to closely monitor the Air Force reconnaissance flights to get a better idea of the rate of…

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