The Atlantic basin’s second tropical cyclone of 2025, Tropical Depression Two, formed Saturday afternoon over the Bay of Campeche. At this time yesterday, the disturbance that became TD Two was only given a 20 percent chance of development. But as is common in the Bay of Campeche, especially this time of year, the curvature of the coastline resulted in the development of a small low-level circulation. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed that the circulation is now well-defined, and the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Depression Two was centered near 19.3°N 94.2°W, and was moving west-northwestward at approximately 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1011 mb. Although sea surface temperatures are warm, near 29°C/84.2°F, vertical shear analyzed at 20-25 knots could limit the intensification rate, as well as the broad wind field of the cyclone. The depression is likely to gradually strengthen overnight into Sunday, as it moves slowly northwestward towards the Veracruz coast. TD Two is expected to make landfall early Monday morning, likely as a low-end tropical storm. If the depression becomes a named storm, it will be named Barry.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan to Tecolutla. Interests in these areas should be prepared for tropical storm conditions, which are expected late Sunday and Monday morning.