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Month: June 2018

Bud begins to weaken, Invest 91L unlikely to develop over Northwestern Caribbean, another Pacific disturbance

Bud begins to weaken, Invest 91L unlikely to develop over Northwestern Caribbean, another Pacific disturbance

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After peaking as a Category 4 hurricane during the early morning hours Tuesday, Hurricane Bud over the eastern Pacific has begun to weaken this afternoon as it moves over cooler waters. Now a low-end Category 3 hurricane, continued weakening is expected for Bud over the next few days before it becomes a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday. In addition to Bud, there is a disturbance to watch over the Caribbean (Invest 91L) and another potential eastern Pacific system. As of…

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Bud a major hurricane, Aletta dissipates, a Caribbean disturbance to watch

Bud a major hurricane, Aletta dissipates, a Caribbean disturbance to watch

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Hurricane Bud over the Eastern Pacific rapidly intensified overnight into the second major hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season. Bud is now a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and some Dvorak estimates suggest it may be even stronger. To the west of Bud, Tropical Storm Aletta has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. In the Atlantic basin, there is a disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea that has a low chance of tropical development by…

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Bud rapidly develops into a hurricane, Aletta hanging on as a tropical storm

Bud rapidly develops into a hurricane, Aletta hanging on as a tropical storm

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After being only a tropical depression 24 hours ago, Hurricane Bud has rapidly developed over the far eastern Pacific and is expected to continue intensifying for the next 24-36 hours or so. To the west of Bud, Aletta continues to hang on as a tropical storm. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Hurricane Bud was centered near 15.3°N 104.2°W, and was moving northwestward at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph), with an estimated minimum…

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Aletta rapidly weakening, TD Three-E forms over the Eastern Pacific and likely to intensify

Aletta rapidly weakening, TD Three-E forms over the Eastern Pacific and likely to intensify

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Hurricane Aletta over the Eastern Pacific has rapidly weakened today. A combination of strong wind shear, cooler waters, and dry air has severely taken a toll on the storm, and Aletta is now a minimal Category 1 hurricane with an exposed low-level circulation. Aletta should continue to weaken over the next two days, and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon, if not sooner. To the east of Aletta, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Three-E…

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Aletta vaults to a Category 4 hurricane, 92E expected to develop

Aletta vaults to a Category 4 hurricane, 92E expected to develop

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Unexpectedly, Hurricane Aletta over the eastern Pacific underwent a remarkable period of rapid intensification overnight, and is now a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some slight additional intensification cannot be ruled out, Aletta is likely close to its peak intensity and weakening should commence tonight or early tomorrow. Aletta remains no threat to land. To the east of Aletta, Invest 92E has been designated, and is expected to develop into a tropical depression this weekend…

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Aletta becomes a hurricane, Bud likely to follow; Caribbean and Gulf may warrant monitoring next week

Aletta becomes a hurricane, Bud likely to follow; Caribbean and Gulf may warrant monitoring next week

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The eastern Pacific remains very active. Tropical Storm Aletta strengthened into the first hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season Thursday afternoon, and is likely to strengthen a little more as it moves west-northwestward away from land. To the east of Aletta, a tropical wave is likely to develop into a new Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone by Sunday. The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now, but the GFS, UKMET and CMC models are all indicating that the Northwestern Caribbean and…

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Tropical Storm Aletta forms over the eastern Pacific, disturbance behind also likely to develop

Tropical Storm Aletta forms over the eastern Pacific, disturbance behind also likely to develop

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The first named storm of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, Tropical Storm Aletta, was named Wednesday morning. Aletta is likely to intensify into a hurricane away from land by the weekend, although the intensity guidance has backed off on intensification a bit. To the east of Aletta is another tropical wave that has a high chance to develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The Atlantic basin remains quiet for the moment, although some models are indicating the possibility of…

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91E close to Tropical Depression status, disturbance behind 91E may also develop

91E close to Tropical Depression status, disturbance behind 91E may also develop

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Invest 91E over the eastern Pacific basin has become much better organized today, and is close to becoming a tropical depression. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined, although an ASCAT pass from Tuesday morning was inconclusive as to whether a well defined circulation had formed. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 91E a near 100 percent chance of development within 48 hours. 91E is likely to have advisories initiated by tonight, should become Tropical Storm Aletta…

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91E expected to develop, East Pacific about to get active

91E expected to develop, East Pacific about to get active

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As is typical for June and July, the eastern Pacific basin is about to get active. The basin already has seen one tropical cyclone – Tropical Depression One-E – form this year, but the eastern Pacific should see its first named storm, Aletta, form this week. Invest 91E currently is given by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) a 60 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance of development within five days. There is also a…

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Expert forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season remain mixed

Expert forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season remain mixed

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All pre-season forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season have been released, and they remain mixed, ranging from a very quiet season (TSR) to a very active season (NCSU). Cyclonic Fury’s forecast is somewhat in between the two extremes, calling for near to slightly below average activity. The forecasts, with the exception of NCSU, do agree on something: the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will very likely be less active than last year. In April, North Carolina State University (NCSU) released…

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