Typhoon Lan has slowly – rather than rapidly – intensified over the Western Pacific. Unlike the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which has featured well above average activity, the 2017 Pacific typhoon season has seen well below-average activity in Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – only about 55 percent of normal. It appears unlikely now that Lan will be able to intensify into a super typhoon (150+ mph 1-minute sustained winds), although it cannot be ruled out yet. The Western Pacific has seen only 1 super typhoon this season so far – which is the least in any season since 2010. Lan is likely to brush Japan on Sunday and Monday, and it the current predicted track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) predicts that the center of Lan will remain just offshore Japan.

As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Lan was centered near 18.8°N 130.0°E. Maximum sustained winds were 85 knots (100 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 962 mb. Lan is equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Lan is likely to intensify some more, but it appears less likely today that Lan will achieve super typhoon status, as noted above, since it has been unable to intensify much the past two days. Residents of Japan should closely monitor the progress of Lan, even if a direct landfall does not occur. Lan should then turn post-tropical by the middle of next week.

The tropical Atlantic and East Pacific remain quiet with no new tropical cyclones likely to develop for at least the next five days. However, I expect both the Atlantic and East Pacific to likely have at least one more named storm before the season ends on November 30.