It’s over: Hurricane Harvey breaks the 4323-day United States major hurricane landfall drought

It’s over: Hurricane Harvey breaks the 4323-day United States major hurricane landfall drought

Official NHC forecast cone for Hurricane Harvey. (Source: National Hurricane Center)

All great things must come to an end. After 4,323 days (nearly 12 years), a major hurricane has once again made landfall in the United States. Hurricane Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor, Texas. Harvey made landfall as a category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (130 mph) and an estimated minimum pressure of 938 mb.

Rainbow image of Hurricane Harvey near the time of landfall. (Source: NOAA)

As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Harvey was centered near 28.0°N 97.0°W and was moving northwestward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 knots (130 mph) with a minimum pressure of 938 mb, based on data from a reconaissaince aircraft that investigated the hurricane right before landfall. This not only makes Harvey the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005, but the first category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Charley in 2004. Harvey is also the first category 4 hurricane to hit Texas since 1961. Harvey is also the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Rita in 2005. Harvey was able to clear out a distinct eye before landfall, and in my opinion, is arguably the most impressive looking Atlantic hurricane of this decade so far.

Several watches and warnings remain in effect. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island Texas. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from North of Sargent to High Island Texas.

Harvey is likely to cause flooding rains across much of southeastern Texas as it moves very little for the next five days, while slowly weakening. Isolated rain totals of over 2 feet are possible. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts Harvey to fall to tropical storm strength by early Sunday, before maintaining its status as a tropical cyclone for five days. It is still a possibility that the center of Harvey could re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, and if this happens, some restrengthening is possible. However, even if Harvey does reemerge back into the Gulf, strengthening will likely be limited due to its proximity to land.

I will be back tomorrow with an update on Harvey, as well as Invest 92L, which is still out there and still could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone by early next week along the western Atlantic. The NHC gives 92L a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance of development within five days. If it becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it would be named Irma.

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